Gas Prices Under Trump Now Average Higher Than Biden as Midterms Near
President Donald Trump spent years attacking former President Joe Biden over the price Americans paid at the gas pump.
Now, less than two years into Trump’s second term, that argument has become considerably more complicated.
Americans have paid more for gasoline on average during Trump’s current term than they did during Biden’s presidency, according to AAA data reported by Reuters on Monday.
The development comes at an especially difficult moment for the White House.
The November 3 midterm elections are approaching, Republicans are fighting to retain control of Congress, inflation remains elevated, and voters continue to identify affordability as one of their biggest concerns.
Gasoline is now adding to that pressure.
For millions of Americans, the issue is not theoretical.
Every trip to work, school, the grocery store or a doctor’s appointment requires fuel.
Every truck transporting food and consumer products across the country requires fuel.
Farmers need diesel to operate equipment.
Businesses pay transportation expenses that can eventually be passed on to customers.
That makes the price displayed at America’s gas stations one of the most visible economic indicators in politics.
And right now, that indicator is creating a serious messaging problem for Trump.
Average Gas Prices During Trump’s Second Term Have Surpassed Biden’s
According to AAA figures analyzed by Reuters, the average price Americans have paid for gasoline during Trump’s second term has now exceeded the average paid during Biden’s presidency.
The comparison is politically significant because Trump repeatedly used high gasoline prices as evidence that Biden’s economic and energy policies were failing Americans.
During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump promised a dramatic change.
His energy message emphasized expanded domestic production and what he described as American “energy dominance.”
Supporters expected that approach to translate into cheaper fuel.
But energy prices are determined by far more than the identity of the president.
Global oil markets, refinery capacity, geopolitical conflict, production decisions by major oil-producing countries, seasonal demand, transportation costs and expectations about future supply can all influence what Americans ultimately pay at the pump.
Those factors are now colliding at one of the worst possible political moments for Republicans.
The Iran War Changed the Equation
One of the biggest factors affecting energy markets has been the prolonged conflict with Iran.
The war has created uncertainty surrounding global oil supplies and transportation through the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important.
A significant portion of the world’s oil supply moves through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with global markets.
Any threat to shipping in or around the strait can cause traders to price additional risk into oil.
That means Americans can experience higher fuel prices even before an actual supply shortage occurs.
Markets react not only to what has happened.
They react to what investors believe could happen next.
Oil markets have remained volatile as the United States weighs its next moves in the conflict.
For the Trump administration, that creates an uncomfortable connection between foreign policy and household economics.
Trump’s Foreign Policy Is Reaching Americans’ Wallets
Foreign wars can feel distant from everyday American life.
Gasoline prices make them immediate.
A family may not closely follow every military development in the Middle East.
But that same family notices when filling its vehicle suddenly costs significantly more.
That is why the Iran conflict has become more than a foreign-policy debate.
It has become a cost-of-living issue.
And that could have significant consequences in the midterm elections.
Trump returned to office promising both lower prices and a foreign policy that would keep the United States out of prolonged conflicts.
Now Republicans are defending their congressional majorities while voters confront higher fuel costs and an Iran war that has stretched for months.
That gives Democrats an obvious political argument.
They can ask voters whether Trump’s policies have actually made their lives cheaper.
Gas Prices Are Different From Most Economic Statistics
Presidents regularly cite economic statistics that many voters rarely encounter directly.
Gross domestic product.
Bond yields.
Business investment.
Productivity.
Corporate earnings.
Stock-market indexes.
Those numbers matter enormously to economists and financial markets.
But gasoline prices are different.
They are displayed on giant signs beside roads across America.
People see them every day.
A driver does not need to read an economic report to know that gasoline became more expensive.
They simply insert their card into the pump.
That visibility makes gasoline uniquely powerful politically.
When prices decline, presidents frequently take credit.
When prices rise, their opponents frequently assign blame.
The economic reality is much more complicated, but political messaging rarely is.
Trump Made Cheap Energy Part of His Political Brand
Trump’s vulnerability on gasoline prices is amplified by his own messaging.
Energy has been central to his political identity.
He repeatedly argued that increased domestic oil and gas production would lower energy costs.
The phrase “drill, baby, drill” became synonymous with his approach.
Trump portrayed the United States as a country capable of producing enormous quantities of energy while reducing dependence on foreign suppliers.
That message resonated with voters frustrated by inflation.
Cheap gasoline became part of a broader promise of economic restoration.
Trump’s argument was not simply that the economy would grow.
It was that Americans would personally feel the difference.
That makes today’s gasoline-price comparison politically uncomfortable.
Presidents Don’t Directly Control Gas Prices
It is important to distinguish political rhetoric from economic reality.
The president of the United States does not personally set gasoline prices.
Neither Trump nor Biden could simply order gas stations to charge a particular amount.
Retail gasoline prices reflect numerous factors.
The largest is typically the price of crude oil.
Refining expenses matter.
Distribution costs matter.
Taxes matter.
Regional regulations matter.
Seasonal fuel formulations matter.
Supply disruptions matter.
Consumer demand matters.
International conflicts matter.
Global production decisions matter.
That means blaming a president for every increase — or crediting a president for every decline — oversimplifies how energy markets work.
But presidents still influence the conditions surrounding those markets.
Foreign policy can affect oil supplies.
Sanctions can affect producers.
Environmental regulations can affect industry costs.
Federal leasing and permitting decisions can affect investment expectations.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve decisions can influence supply.
And presidential rhetoric itself can influence market expectations.
So while the White House does not control the number displayed at the gas station, presidential policy is not irrelevant either.
The Political Problem Is Trump’s Previous Attacks on Biden
This is where Republicans face a messaging challenge.
Trump repeatedly connected Biden directly to high gasoline prices.
Republicans made similar arguments.
When Americans paid more at the pump during the Biden administration, GOP politicians treated those prices as evidence of failed Democratic leadership.
Now Democrats can use essentially the same argument against Republicans.
If presidents deserve blame when gasoline prices rise, they can ask, why should Trump be treated differently?
Republicans can respond by pointing to the Iran conflict, international oil markets and other global forces.
But those explanations may sound familiar.
The Biden administration also argued that presidents do not control global oil markets.
Republicans largely rejected that defense at the time.
That history makes the current debate particularly potent.
Americans Are Already Angry About the Cost of Living
Gasoline prices are not increasing in isolation.
They are arriving during a broader affordability crisis.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed October 26 found that 73% of Americans surveyed believe the cost of living is moving in the wrong direction.
Trump’s approval rating stood at only 32%.
Democrats also held an advantage over Republicans among registered voters asked which party they would support for Congress.
That means higher fuel prices are reinforcing an existing political weakness rather than creating an entirely new one.
Voters are already worried about affordability.
Gasoline gives them another highly visible expense to add to the list.
Grocery Prices and Gas Prices Are Connected
Higher fuel costs do not stop at the gas station.
The modern American food system depends heavily on transportation.
Farm products must travel from fields to processing facilities.
Processed food must travel to distribution centers.
Distribution centers send products to supermarkets.
Restaurants receive deliveries.
Refrigerated trucks consume fuel.
Agricultural equipment consumes fuel.
Packaging materials must be transported.
When energy becomes more expensive, businesses throughout that chain can face higher costs.
Not every increase is immediately passed on to consumers.
Companies may absorb some costs.
They may improve efficiency.
They may negotiate different transportation contracts.
But sustained increases in energy expenses can eventually contribute to higher prices elsewhere.
That’s why gasoline matters even to Americans who do not drive frequently.
Farmers Could Feel the Pressure Especially Hard
Agriculture is particularly exposed to energy costs.
Farmers operate tractors, harvesters, irrigation systems, trucks and other heavy equipment.
Many rely heavily on diesel.
They also purchase fertilizer and other inputs whose production can be energy intensive.
Transportation is essential to getting agricultural products to market.
That means higher fuel prices can squeeze farmers from multiple directions.
Their operating expenses increase while other trade-related pressures may affect the prices they receive for their products.
This matters politically because rural voters have been among Trump’s strongest supporters.
If economic conditions deteriorate in agricultural communities, Republicans risk frustration inside a constituency they normally expect to dominate.
Trucking Costs Eventually Affect Almost Everyone
America’s economy depends on trucks.
Look around almost any room.
The furniture, electronics, clothing, food, appliances and household products probably spent part of their journey on a truck.
Those trucks consume enormous quantities of diesel fuel.
When diesel becomes more expensive, transportation companies face higher operating expenses.
Businesses shipping goods then face a decision.
Absorb those costs and accept lower profits.
Find savings elsewhere.
Or pass at least some of the increase to customers.
This is one reason energy inflation can spread throughout an economy.
The price of fuel affects the cost of moving almost everything.
Housing Is Already Squeezing Household Budgets
Energy prices are hitting consumers while housing affordability remains another major problem.
Mortgage rates have increased.
Home prices remain difficult for many first-time buyers.
Rent consumes a substantial share of income for millions of households.
Insurance costs have increased in many areas.
Property taxes can add additional pressure.
When households are already spending a large percentage of their income on housing, even a relatively modest increase in gasoline or grocery expenses can become significant.
A family does not experience each category independently.
The household budget combines everything.
Rent.
Electricity.
Food.
Gasoline.
Insurance.
Childcare.
Healthcare.
Debt payments.
Phone service.
Internet.
Every additional expense competes for the same paycheck.
This Is Why Inflation Can Remain Politically Toxic Even When Growth Is Positive
The Trump administration can point to legitimate signs of economic strength.
The economy continues to grow.
Unemployment remains relatively low.
Financial markets have performed strongly.
Investment in some industries has increased.
But those statistics do not necessarily erase household frustration.
A person can have a job and still feel financially worse off.
A household can receive a raise and still lose purchasing power if expenses rise faster.
The stock market can reach records while someone without substantial investments struggles to pay for groceries.
This disconnect between macroeconomic performance and personal financial experience is one of the defining political challenges of the 2026 midterms.
Democrats Are Trying to Turn Affordability Into a Referendum on Trump
Democrats have increasingly centered their campaign around prices.
Their argument is straightforward.
Trump promised to reduce costs.
Republicans gained control of Washington.
Yet many Americans are still paying more for necessities.
Democrats are trying to connect gasoline, groceries, housing, tariffs and the Iran war into one broader narrative:
Republican control has not made life more affordable.
Whether voters accept that argument will help determine control of Congress.
Republicans Have Their Own Counterargument
Republicans argue that Trump’s policies need time to work.
They point to domestic investment, energy production, manufacturing projects and other economic indicators.
They can also argue that global conflict — rather than domestic energy policy — is primarily responsible for recent increases in oil prices.
The administration may contend that defeating threats in the Middle East is necessary for longer-term stability.
Republicans can additionally remind voters that gasoline prices also reached painful levels during Biden’s presidency.
Their challenge is explaining why today’s prices should be viewed differently from the prices they blamed on Democrats previously.
That is not an impossible argument.
But it is a complicated one.
And complicated economic explanations are often difficult to communicate during an election campaign.
The Midterms Are Only Days Away
Timing makes the gasoline story particularly important.
Election Day is November 3.
Republicans do not have months to wait for energy markets to stabilize.
Voters are making decisions now.
Some have already voted.
That means any major movement in gasoline prices during the final stretch can immediately influence the political conversation.
A significant decline could provide Republicans with relief.
Another increase could reinforce Democratic attacks.
The White House therefore has both an economic and political incentive to prevent further disruption to global oil supplies.
Trump’s Iran Decision Could Affect Prices Further
Oil traders are closely watching what Trump does next regarding Iran.
Further escalation could increase fears about Middle Eastern oil supplies.
A diplomatic breakthrough could have the opposite effect.
Markets often react rapidly to geopolitical developments.
That means a presidential statement, military action or diplomatic announcement could influence oil prices before voters even reach Election Day.
This puts extraordinary pressure on the administration.
Trump must weigh military objectives, international alliances, national security and domestic economic consequences simultaneously.
The political calendar makes those decisions even more sensitive.
The Strait of Hormuz Remains Critical
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important energy corridors.
Oil and liquefied natural gas from major Middle Eastern producers pass through the waterway.
A serious disruption could affect global supplies.
Even the possibility of disruption can move markets because traders must account for risk.
Insurance costs for shipping can increase.
Transportation routes can become more complicated.
Companies can begin preparing for shortages.
All of those factors can contribute to higher energy costs.
That is why developments thousands of miles away can eventually appear on a gasoline sign in an American suburb.
Higher Gas Prices Could Hurt Trump With Working-Class Voters
Trump’s political coalition includes millions of working-class voters.
Many commute by car.
Many live in areas without extensive public transportation.
For those households, gasoline is not an optional expense.
A worker who drives 40 miles every day cannot simply stop purchasing fuel because prices rise.
That makes gasoline increases effectively unavoidable.
Higher-income households may be able to absorb an additional $50 or $100 per month relatively easily.
For a household living paycheck to paycheck, the same increase can require sacrifices elsewhere.
That economic reality makes fuel prices especially politically sensitive among the very voters both parties are competing to win.
Rural Americans Often Have Fewer Alternatives
Gasoline prices can be even more significant in rural communities.
Public transportation may be limited or nonexistent.
Residents may travel long distances for work, healthcare, groceries and school activities.
Vehicles may also be larger because people use trucks for farming, construction or other work.
Those factors can increase fuel consumption.
Republicans have historically performed extremely well in rural America.
But rural voters are not immune to economic pressure.
Recent polling has already shown dissatisfaction with economic conditions among some rural voters.
If gasoline costs continue rising, that frustration could deepen.
Suburban Voters Matter Too
The political consequences are not limited to rural communities.
Suburban voters frequently commute significant distances.
Families may operate two vehicles.
Parents drive children to school, sports and other activities.
Households may already be dealing with expensive mortgages, childcare and grocery bills.
For these voters, fuel becomes another component of the broader affordability equation.
Suburban districts are also critical to control of the House.
Small shifts among these voters can determine congressional races.
Black Households Are Not Immune to the Affordability Squeeze
For Black Americans, the broader affordability debate carries additional significance.
Economic inequality means households do not enter periods of inflation with equal financial cushions.
Families with less accumulated wealth can be more vulnerable to sudden increases in essential expenses.
Transportation costs are particularly difficult because getting to work is not optional.
Higher grocery prices are not optional.
Housing costs are not optional.
That is why political discussions about inflation cannot be reduced to national averages.
The same price increase can have dramatically different effects depending on a household’s income, savings, debt and location.
As both parties compete for Black voters, economic outcomes could matter as much as campaign rhetoric.
Could Gas Prices Actually Decide the Election?
Probably not by themselves.
Voters consider many issues.
Immigration.
Abortion.
Healthcare.
Crime.
Foreign policy.
Taxes.
Education.
Democracy.
Candidate personality.
Party identification.
But gasoline can reinforce a broader impression.
If a voter already believes the economy is moving in the wrong direction, an expensive trip to the gas station can strengthen that belief.
If someone already questions the Iran war, higher fuel prices can connect that foreign-policy concern directly to their household finances.
If someone voted for Trump specifically because they expected lower prices, gasoline can become a visible reminder of an unmet expectation.
That is where the political danger lies.
Trump’s Biggest Problem May Be Expectations
Politics is often about expectations.
If a president promises modest improvement and delivers modest improvement, voters may be satisfied.
If a president promises dramatic improvement and conditions remain difficult, the political disappointment can be much greater.
Trump did not campaign on the idea that energy prices would remain roughly comparable to Biden’s.
He promised a major transformation.
He repeatedly presented expanded American energy production as a pathway toward dramatically lower costs.
That created a clear benchmark against which voters could judge him.
The current AAA comparison therefore matters not because Biden controlled gasoline prices or because Trump controls them now.
It matters because Trump himself made gasoline prices a symbol of presidential economic competence.
The Comparison With Biden Is Politically Explosive
For years, Republicans used Biden-era gasoline prices in campaign advertisements, speeches and social-media posts.
Pictures of gas-station signs became political content.
Biden’s name was frequently associated with expensive fuel.
Now Democrats have an obvious response.
If average gasoline prices during Trump’s second term exceed the average under Biden, Trump’s previous attacks can be turned directly against him.
That reversal creates a headline that is easy for voters to understand.
No complicated economic chart is required.
The comparison itself tells the political story.
But Context Still Matters
A responsible comparison requires acknowledging that the circumstances of the two presidencies are different.
Oil markets change.
Wars occur.
Global demand fluctuates.
Production rises and falls.
Natural disasters can disrupt refineries.
International alliances shift.
Comparing averages between presidents cannot establish that one president personally caused every difference.
The number is politically important.
It is not proof that a president directly determined every cent Americans paid.
That distinction matters, especially for a news organization trying to separate analysis from partisan messaging.
What Happens After the Midterms?
Regardless of which party wins November 3, energy prices will remain a major issue.
If Republicans retain Congress, Trump will face pressure to demonstrate that his energy policies can eventually deliver the lower costs he promised.
If Democrats capture one or both chambers, they will likely intensify scrutiny of the administration’s handling of the Iran war, tariffs and energy policy.
Congressional hearings could examine the economic consequences of the conflict.
Lawmakers could push alternative energy policies.
And the political fight over who deserves blame for high prices will continue.
The election will not end the affordability debate.
It will determine who has political power while that debate continues.
Americans Will Ultimately Judge the Economy Through Their Own Lives
Economic arguments can become extraordinarily complicated.
Politicians can cite statistics supporting almost any narrative.
One side can point to GDP.
Another can point to inflation.
One can highlight job creation.
Another can highlight household debt.
One can celebrate stock-market records.
Another can focus on housing affordability.
But voters eventually make their own judgment.
They look at their paycheck.
They look at their bank account.
They look at their rent.
They look at their grocery receipt.
And they look at the number displayed at the gas station.
That final number is becoming increasingly difficult for Trump to ignore.
The Bottom Line
Trump built a significant part of his economic message around the promise that American energy dominance would make life cheaper.
Gasoline was one of the clearest symbols of that promise.
Now AAA data reported by Reuters shows that Americans have paid more for gasoline on average during Trump’s current term than they did during Biden’s presidency.
The reasons involve global oil markets, the Iran conflict, supply risks and numerous forces beyond any president’s direct control.
But politics does not always reward nuance.
Republicans blamed Biden when Americans paid painful prices at the pump.
Democrats now have the opportunity to return the argument.
And with voters already deeply concerned about the cost of living and control of Congress at stake on November 3, gasoline could become one more economic warning sign Republicans cannot afford to dismiss.
For millions of Americans, the question is much simpler than the economics behind global oil markets:
Why am I still paying this much?
How voters answer that question could help determine who controls Washington after Election Day.
The News Empire will continue tracking gasoline prices, the economy, the Trump administration and the political battles shaping the 2026 midterm elections. Visit thenewsempire.com for the latest U.S. political news and analysis.